The 2018–2020 US – China trade war marked a turning point in global commerce, reshaping supply chains, redirecting energy flows, and ultimately accelerating talent trends across Asia. While the headlines often spotlighted escalating tariffs and political brinkmanship, a closer look reveals a more surprising narrative.
Geopolitical Backdrop: Tariffs and Retaliation
The trade conflict began with the US imposing tariffs on over $250 billion worth of Chinese goods, citing unfair trade practices and intellectual property concerns. China swiftly responded with tariffs of its own, notably targeting U.S. energy exports such as crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Product Impact Snapshot: The Energy Trade Rebalanced
The immediate effects of tariffs were tangible across energy markets:
• LNG: US LNG lost competitiveness in China as Beijing imposed tariffs as high as 25%.
• Crude Oil: Chinese refiners significantly reduced US crude imports. By 2019, Chinese imports of American crude nearly halted.
• Refined Products: Shifting arbitrage opportunities emerged as trade flows were rerouted to markets less affected by tariffs, altering profit centers and logistics.
While these changes posed challenges, they also catalyzed a broader transformation in how energy was bought, sold, and transported across the Asia-Pacific.
Refining & Trading: A Strategic Pivot East of Suez
The phrase “East of Suez” became increasingly relevant during the trade war, referring to the region stretching from the Middle East through South and Southeast Asia to East Asia. As US energy cargoes lost traction in China, other regional players stepped in:
• Singapore, with its strategic location and deep trading expertise, emerged as a neutral and dynamic hub.
• India saw an opportunity and significantly increased imports of US crude, becoming a top destination for US Crude oil by 2020.
• South Korea secured new long-term LNG contracts with American exporters to diversify supply.
Trading desks across the region evolved quickly, leveraging digital tools and agile logistics to respond in real-time to shifting arbitrage windows and political developments.
Talent Trends: The Human Element in a Shifting Market
Perhaps one of the most underappreciated outcomes of the trade war was how it reshaped demand for skilled professionals in the energy sector. Rather than contracting out roles, hiring evolved instead. Focusing less on traditional roles and more on flexibility, regional insight, and commercial creativity.
This shift was about reskilling and redistributing expertise. Employers sought talent with a blend of technical knowledge, geopolitical awareness, and commercial agility, all traits that became vital in navigating the new normal.
Silver Lining: Strengthening the East of Suez Talent Ecosystem
While trade tensions between the U.S. and China reshaped global energy routes, they also accelerated the professional maturation of the East of Suez region. Markets like Singapore, Mumbai, Hanoi, and Seoul emerged not only as trading centers but also as talent magnets.
Instead of triggering a hiring freeze, the trade war catalyzed a redistribution of opportunity. Energy companies, especially those with regional exposure, began investing in local expertise, empowering professionals who understood both the cultural and commercial nuances of emerging markets.
Conclusion: From Disruption to Opportunity
The 2018–2020 US – China trade war is often seen through the lens of economic disruption, and rightfully so. But beneath the volatility lay a deeper shift, a more diversified and regionally empowered energy ecosystem. At the heart of that transformation are professionals who adapted, evolved, and led the way in a rapidly changing trade environment.
It’s about people and how the right expertise, in the right place, at the right time, can turn disruption into a springboard for innovation and growth.
Stephen Ong
